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Post-conflict economies are characterized by high, and often growing, levels of debt. At the same time, peace is particularly fragile in the aftermath of a conflict. This chapter studies how debt affects the risk of war in the 10 years that follow the end of a previous conflict. After controlling for per-capita income and other economic, political, and geographical factors, external debt is found to increase the risk of war. Conversely, the effect of domestic debt is negligible. The policy implication for the international community is clear: debt relief helps stabilize peace in war-torn economies.

Purpose – The chapter studies the impact of fiscal policy on the stabilisation of peace in the aftermath of a civil war.

Methodology – We use data from African war-torn countries and study the issue of post-conflict stabilisation from an empirical perspective. We employ probit analysis to formally estimate the effect of fiscal policy on the probability of maintaining peace in the post-conflict period.

Findings – The success of post-conflict transition does not require downsizing the government. On the contrary, successful post-conflict transitions are on average characterised by an increase in the size of the government. However, both expenditures and revenues increase at a comparable pace. Moreover, in successful post-conflict transitions, the increase in government size involves an increase in the incidence of capital expenditure relative to government consumption. On the revenue side, budgetary grants appear to strengthen the chances of success. A heavier debt burden does not seem to compromise the probability of successfully completing the post-conflict transition.

Research limitations/implications – Future research should (i) extend the sample to non-African countries, (ii) extend the analysis to other macroeconomic policy variables and (iii) supplement cross-country analysis on the role of fiscal policy with country case studies. A potential application of the findings of this chapter is the construction of a model to predict the evolution of currently ongoing post-conflict transitions.

Social implications – The findings bear implications on how governments should conduct fiscal policy in the aftermath of a conflict. They also provide guidelines for the international community on how best to assist post-conflict economies.

Originality – Papers concerned with the determinants of peace in the post-conflict period do not generally look at the potential contribution of fiscal policy. This chapter is the first attempt, to the best of our knowledge, to provide econometric evidence on the role of fiscal policy as a possible driver of peace stabilisation in the aftermath of a conflict.

In their chapter, ‘A method to compute a peace gross world product by country and by economic sector’, Jurgen Brauer and John Tepper Marlin present a novel method to assess the economic value of peace, in both the domestic and international realms. This is not only a tool for assessing and forecasting the potential benefits of reduced violence, but it is an example of best social science practice in that by design it incorporates the best existing knowledge on the effects of peace. This approach combining meta-analysis with a novel integrating framework is quite promising. For the purposes of the book, it sets the stage nicely for the subsequent chapters by highlighting the big picture of expected welfare gains from peace, within a rigorous scientific context, rather than one of advocacy. Estimating the potential economic benefits of internal and international peace is also fundamental in understanding the potential economic incentives which might drive political and business leaders to avoid deadly conflict, and pursue peace.

Aditya Agrawal is a scholarship graduate from Bond University (2006, first class honors in Management Science) and the 2007–2008 summer scholar at the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, Australian National University. He commenced work at the University College, Australian Defence Force Academy in June 2008 and is currently reading for his doctorate in military outsourcing. Previously he has worked with both the corporate sector and the government departments. He has published in scholarly journals and peer-reviewed conferences and was awarded the Best Paper Prize at the national Australian Conference on Information Systems (ACIS 2007).